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AI Bets
Every published pick, graded against the close and summarized — each figure with its sample size and a 95% confidence interval, in good weeks and bad. The metrics below are shown in the order they will always be shown, fixed before the first pick existed.
Headline
No graded picks yet — the record begins with the first card.
Closing line value against a de-vigged close — did the published number beat where the market finished? It leads because it converges over tens of bets, not thousands. Every figure will carry its n, a 95% confidence interval, and the named reference books.
Secondary
No graded picks yet — the record begins with the first card.
Profit at the conservative achievable price — the worst price at or better than the published floor, never our own released number. With n and a 95% confidence interval.
Tertiary
No graded picks yet — the record begins with the first card.
Wins, losses, pushes — deliberately last. At a season's sample size its confidence interval contains break-even, and that caveat will be printed next to it permanently.
The row-by-row table behind these figures lives on the full ledger — append-only, corrections as new rows, never an edit.
This page will not change its layout, metric order, or CI display based on results.
Published before Week 1, which is the point: identical layout, identical metric order, identical confidence-interval display in a good season and a bad one. No element of this page will ever be conditional on the sign of a result.
This is where the calibration chart will live: the model's stated probabilities, bucketed and plotted against how often those picks actually hit. Calibration is the one measure that is honest at a single season's sample size — it converges far faster than a win rate, and it separates a well-calibrated model having a bad run from a miscalibrated one having a good run. It renders from the first graded week.
Why calibration leads at small samples: the sample-size math.
BetFantasy.ai is not a sportsbook. We accept no wagers and hold no money. Everything published here is informational analysis and opinion — not financial advice, and not a prediction of any outcome. These are model outputs, the model is often wrong, and the complete record of that is public. Sports betting carries real risk; only ever stake what you can afford to lose. 21+ and only where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call or text the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).